AI Hype Isn’t New — But the Stakes Are
What decades of bad predictions teach us about AI, disruption, and the future of cybersecurity
There is a certain confidence in today’s AI discourse that should make every seasoned operator pause.
Executives, analysts, and technologists are making sweeping claims about artificial intelligence, its inevitability, its dominance, and its ability to fundamentally replace large portions of the workforce. The tone feels definitive, almost settled. But if you take a step back and examine history, this level of certainty is not new. In fact, it is one of the most consistent signals that the market is misunderstanding the moment.
The reality is that we have seen this pattern before. The internet in the late 1990s, industrial automation in manufacturing, and the rise of mobile computing all triggered similar waves of optimism and fear. In each case, experts made bold predictions. In each case, many of those predictions were wrong not because the technology failed, but because the framing was flawed.
Understanding those patterns is critical for today’s cybersecurity leaders. Because AI is not just another technology wave it is a force multiplier in an already asymmetric threat landscape.
The Incumbency Trap: Why Experts Misjudge Disruption
One of the most consistent failure modes in technology forecasting is what can be described as the incumbency trap. Time and again, leaders of dominant organizations have evaluated emerging technologies through the lens of their existing business models.
